While opening a franchise is often a great way to reduce risks and generate profits based on an existing business model that offers cooperative management, for companies that have realized success on a smaller scale, franchising is also a great way to expand your existing business and generate greater revenues while minimizing the overhead spent on facilities, personnel, and training. In addition, franchising is also a great way to take your business to a global level, by opening up franchises in other countries.
Many of today's top US franchise companies, like McDonald's or Dunkin' Donuts, now have several foreign franchises as well. However, franchising is not always just for the largest companies. A number of smaller companies have also opened a number of franchises in other countries as well that have been successful and profitable. An example of this is some of the smaller US chocolate and candy companies which now operate in parts of the Middle East where chocolate is considered a delectable luxury, much like caviar in the US.
One of the biggest challenges of franchising in foreign countries, however, is being able to adapt your product and operations to the various customs and lifestyles of various cultures. Notable US franchisor KFC had eleven retail outlets in Hong Kong fail within two years, mostly because the Chinese found the food to be too greasy and considered eating with your hands to be undesirable. A number of US pizza chains have also discovered a bit of a challenge globally, as t has been discovered that people in different regions prefer different kinds of pizza toppings.
McDonald's remains the largest global franchisor worldwide, and can teach many franchisors, both small and large, a great deal about adapting to various countries in order to make your franchises a success. Both domestically and internationally, McDonald's has been met with a great deal of challenges, and has proven that the ability to evolve with changing demands and respond to problems rapidly and effectively are the keys to success in any business.
In the US, the company has been faced with lawsuits over hot coffee that did not have appropriate warnings and also claims that the company was making people obese. As a result, the company puts a great deal of effort into product labeling and is making strides in offering healthier menu choices. Overseas, the company has also been faced with the threat of E. Coli contamination and even a mad cow disease outbreak in its Asian stores, which serve as examples of the difficulties that any franchisor must be prepared to deal with a number of various situations readily and effectively.
Friday, January 6, 2012
The Global OTC Drugs Market
Over-the-Counter drugs are non-prescription drugs sold to consumers by convenience and grocery stores. Ever rising population of the world as well as high costs of prescription drugs combined with strained healthcare budgets and high, rising prevalence of the many conditions treated by OTC medications will drive market growth. This rapid growth has caught the attention of the pharmaceutical industry and there has been a particular focus in the pharmaceutical industry on OTC over the past decade.
From 2011 onwards, Rx-to-OTC switching and the continuing importance of emerging healthcare markets will drive sales in this sector. This various OTC industry reports will give details where future OTC switching and other advancement will occur, making you well worse with the information that you need to understand the current OTC market and its future prospects.
Revenue from the cough and cold preparations drugs accounted for 18% of the global OTC pharmaceuticals market's value, while Europe comprises for 40% of the global OTC pharmaceuticals market's value. Johnson and Johnson occupies for 12% of the global OTC pharmaceuticals market's overall value. Pharmacies and drugstores form a leading distribution channel in the global OTC pharmaceuticals market, accounting for 67% of the total value.
This new Global OTC drugs market report will give insight on how this market will develop, and where the opportunities will lie. It shows how you can benefit from its developments and potential. That study examines all the prominent OTC drug segments, including Cough, cold and allergy medications, Analgesics, Gastrointestinal drugs, Smoking Cessation Products, Dermatological preparations, Diet Aids, Smoking-cessation aids, and Others including contraceptives, anti-obesity treatments, satins and erectile dysfunction treatments.
The key issues and trends explored in this study includes, Mergers and Acquisitions, Distribution and Safety Issues, Consumer Advertising and Promotion, Demographics, World Health and Life Expectancy Trends, Prescription vs. OTC Industry, Rx-to-OTC Switch Industry, Economic Trends, Health Insurance Issues and Trends, Consumer Issues and Trends, Regulatory Environment, and Access to Medicine.
This OTC company profiles will provide you with up-to-date information that you need to understand current trends and future directions of the companies.
In-depth competitive analysis of global OTC drugs market is also covered in the reports. The reports include worldwide information with special emphasis on the U.S., Japan, Germany, and other key markets. The reports provide examples of OTC drugs in each general region, segmented as follows: Asia pacific and Africa, Europe, North America and South America. The Global OTC Pharmaceutical Market examines that sector through a comprehensive review of information sources. The OTC market reports and profiles provide unique sales forecasts, market share analyses, and analyses of commercial drivers and restraints, including market analysis.
From 2011 onwards, Rx-to-OTC switching and the continuing importance of emerging healthcare markets will drive sales in this sector. This various OTC industry reports will give details where future OTC switching and other advancement will occur, making you well worse with the information that you need to understand the current OTC market and its future prospects.
Revenue from the cough and cold preparations drugs accounted for 18% of the global OTC pharmaceuticals market's value, while Europe comprises for 40% of the global OTC pharmaceuticals market's value. Johnson and Johnson occupies for 12% of the global OTC pharmaceuticals market's overall value. Pharmacies and drugstores form a leading distribution channel in the global OTC pharmaceuticals market, accounting for 67% of the total value.
This new Global OTC drugs market report will give insight on how this market will develop, and where the opportunities will lie. It shows how you can benefit from its developments and potential. That study examines all the prominent OTC drug segments, including Cough, cold and allergy medications, Analgesics, Gastrointestinal drugs, Smoking Cessation Products, Dermatological preparations, Diet Aids, Smoking-cessation aids, and Others including contraceptives, anti-obesity treatments, satins and erectile dysfunction treatments.
The key issues and trends explored in this study includes, Mergers and Acquisitions, Distribution and Safety Issues, Consumer Advertising and Promotion, Demographics, World Health and Life Expectancy Trends, Prescription vs. OTC Industry, Rx-to-OTC Switch Industry, Economic Trends, Health Insurance Issues and Trends, Consumer Issues and Trends, Regulatory Environment, and Access to Medicine.
This OTC company profiles will provide you with up-to-date information that you need to understand current trends and future directions of the companies.
In-depth competitive analysis of global OTC drugs market is also covered in the reports. The reports include worldwide information with special emphasis on the U.S., Japan, Germany, and other key markets. The reports provide examples of OTC drugs in each general region, segmented as follows: Asia pacific and Africa, Europe, North America and South America. The Global OTC Pharmaceutical Market examines that sector through a comprehensive review of information sources. The OTC market reports and profiles provide unique sales forecasts, market share analyses, and analyses of commercial drivers and restraints, including market analysis.
Expand Internet Marketing to Global Markets
The search for the most effective marketing strategy is forever because the internet marketing is constantly changing. As time goes by, internet marketing continues to expand globally. Entrepreneurs will not stop aiming for improvement.
With today's fast changing business landscape, online marketers have to adapt flexibility in order to deal effectively with the changes. Even when you are new to online marketing, you should be always open to changes and aim to learn more marketing strategies.
If you want to improve with your online marketing job, set up your goals in aiming expansion. Do not stop in your own niche, try reaching the leading entrepreneurs. This can be made possible by continuous research using the internet's wide scope of knowledge.
One excellent marketing strategy that will surely expand your business is through global marketing. This method or strategy will be able to expand your business to international markets. When you decided to expand your business globally, you should maximize your products' sales potential.
In global marketing, your products will be exported to other big international companies. Your products should be excellent, so that you can compete your products to others. Know your product well before advertising and make the very best to promote your product widely. Make sure that your sites can reach different people with different races.
Give importance to customers' feedback because these feedback can be your basis for improvements. Learn to accept positive and negative feedback. When the majority of people cannot relate with your advertisements, do something to change your ways of advertising.
Establish direct contact with local and international businesses to gain insight about foreign country's economies and will slowly introduce your brands to countries. Other businesses also can help you in managing your business because they can give strategies on how to achieve high ranking web site visitors and earn more sales.
With today's fast changing business landscape, online marketers have to adapt flexibility in order to deal effectively with the changes. Even when you are new to online marketing, you should be always open to changes and aim to learn more marketing strategies.
If you want to improve with your online marketing job, set up your goals in aiming expansion. Do not stop in your own niche, try reaching the leading entrepreneurs. This can be made possible by continuous research using the internet's wide scope of knowledge.
One excellent marketing strategy that will surely expand your business is through global marketing. This method or strategy will be able to expand your business to international markets. When you decided to expand your business globally, you should maximize your products' sales potential.
In global marketing, your products will be exported to other big international companies. Your products should be excellent, so that you can compete your products to others. Know your product well before advertising and make the very best to promote your product widely. Make sure that your sites can reach different people with different races.
Give importance to customers' feedback because these feedback can be your basis for improvements. Learn to accept positive and negative feedback. When the majority of people cannot relate with your advertisements, do something to change your ways of advertising.
Establish direct contact with local and international businesses to gain insight about foreign country's economies and will slowly introduce your brands to countries. Other businesses also can help you in managing your business because they can give strategies on how to achieve high ranking web site visitors and earn more sales.
How to Leverage Global Stock Markets
Trading in foreign markets and between foreign markets, be it Chinese, Indian or European markets has become a reality for day traders across the globe and even on the African continent. Here is some advice to get you started in global trading, shared by one of the most successful stock brokers on the African continent.
Trading stock markets has radically changed with the birth of Internet. In 1995 still, the broking community was pretty much a closed structure, an old boy's club. You couldn't play yourself on the stock market, you needed to have a broker. By 2005, the market has moved towards online trading with the development of Internet after 1998. Now you can go online, open an international account with a bank and start trading international markets.
There are still some restriction though - the only restrictions for South Africans, for example, lie in the ability of opening up an account. For example, foreign traders cannot set up account in USA, however if you can open a UK account you can trade the American markets too from that account. You can trade anything from commodities to futures to foreign exchange. Technology has enabled the individual to become a day trader.
The long-term investor doesn't tend to want to invest in the foreign markets. A day trader opens an account in the morning and closes it down in the afternoon. The day trader is a highly skilled individual who is knowledgeable in the market. The global markets are for day traders - as a long-term investor you don't have the time to follow the strategies involved in day trading.
If you are going to become a global trader, you have to determine which is the best trading style for you. Your trading style depends on your personality, the time you have to trade and your knowledge on the market. Most traders will prefer an electronic trading, which is all anonymous. If you want to buy a share quicker than anyone else, you make a higher offer. The electronic environment is a queuing system. If you buy the share at the current market price, you simply go to the back of the line. All orders are filled from the front. If you want to sell now, sell at the lower price and jump the queue.
You have to understand the environment you're in before you trade. That is the most basic rule of investing. The second rule is to understand which is the leading indicator. The stock market is the leading indicator of the economy, not the other way around. If you get it wrong, every trading decision will be based on the wrong assumption. You really need to understand fundamentals before even looking at technical aspect. Stockbroking is a profession and you cannot move from one profession to another without studying the markets. There are no shortcuts.
If you really understand the markets and how the four environmental factors influence shares - economy, politics, business and technology - then your gut instinct starts to kick in. It only does the better your knowledge and skills. It's different than reacting on fear or greed. Gut instinct is not emotion. It comes with experience.
A good trader must have complete discipline, work ethic, commit to the trading strategy (not breaking its own rules) and the work schedule. A good trader needs to understand that if anything happens in the Asian markets, how would that ripple-effect South Africa, for example? We are heading towards a 24 hour market, where we can trade anytime. The Internet didn't give an advantage, it just made possible for trading hours to become more complex.
There are unrealistic expectation to trading. Most people want to trade global markets in a matter of weeks, whereas they took several years to be in their current profession. Unfortunately it's not like that and you need to understand the market, what the technical indicators do and what to do when something happens in the market.
Markets move in an irrational manner. It's not always buy when a share price goes up. Sometimes shares prices fall with good news and go up following bad news. If the market expected better news than the news that came out, the share price falls, if the market expected worse news than the news that came out, the share price rises.
As a trader, you must know what these things mean. You can learn to trade. The better your knowledge, the more you can trade. You must have full knowledge of the companies you're buying shares from. What do the companies do? How different are they from the competitors? How did the share prices performed in the last months?
Where do you start? First establish a long-term portfolio and only then move to the futures market. You must first succeed in these before being comfortable with short-term portfolios. You need knowledge and then to built up capital. You have both currency and country risks in global markets. Try and look at a virtual portfolio and understand it before trading with real money.
Will a mentor help? Certainly. Mentorship is individual assistance and helps you build knowledge. It's comforting to know you have someone to call and ask for advice. Traders, especially in the beginning, need someone experienced to be there for them. When they want to buy shares, they should look at random shares, think about them and analyse them before trading. When they do it, they know they are doing it with the knowledge behind it.
A trader must always have a stop-loss. If the share price falls below that, you move the share. If you have a stop-loss strategy, use it. In the market you can make money with share prices falling. The skilled, disciplined trader will say: There are no problems in the market, only opportunities. Magliolo claims that famine, floods and war are good and it shocks many people. If you don't agree, then you're not ready for day trading. Because day trading is exactly that. Disasters create demands for companies to supply - you get the big picture. It's not a nice thing to say, but a true trader will take advantage of the situation. You need to get to that mentality and accept it.
You would perhaps wonder how effective is trading in global markets as a wealth creation tool, as opposed to other means of investments like retirement funds or property investment. The question is: Why should anyone in the world be limited to invest only in their country? One should be able to move money anywhere in the world as he pleases. If one country collapses, you should be able to move you money and be competitive worldwide.
Real estate investments are assets limited to the environmental factors - imagine selling and moving the money, it will take months for the transfers, plus fees and taxes. You can buy shares in property companies - the stock market is available for every single aspect, derivatives, bonds, gold shares and so on. With day trading, there is no waste, cash is transferred into your account immediately. That's what the extremely wealthy investors do. Day trading is part of their routine - so why shouldn't you go for it?
Trading stock markets has radically changed with the birth of Internet. In 1995 still, the broking community was pretty much a closed structure, an old boy's club. You couldn't play yourself on the stock market, you needed to have a broker. By 2005, the market has moved towards online trading with the development of Internet after 1998. Now you can go online, open an international account with a bank and start trading international markets.
There are still some restriction though - the only restrictions for South Africans, for example, lie in the ability of opening up an account. For example, foreign traders cannot set up account in USA, however if you can open a UK account you can trade the American markets too from that account. You can trade anything from commodities to futures to foreign exchange. Technology has enabled the individual to become a day trader.
The long-term investor doesn't tend to want to invest in the foreign markets. A day trader opens an account in the morning and closes it down in the afternoon. The day trader is a highly skilled individual who is knowledgeable in the market. The global markets are for day traders - as a long-term investor you don't have the time to follow the strategies involved in day trading.
If you are going to become a global trader, you have to determine which is the best trading style for you. Your trading style depends on your personality, the time you have to trade and your knowledge on the market. Most traders will prefer an electronic trading, which is all anonymous. If you want to buy a share quicker than anyone else, you make a higher offer. The electronic environment is a queuing system. If you buy the share at the current market price, you simply go to the back of the line. All orders are filled from the front. If you want to sell now, sell at the lower price and jump the queue.
You have to understand the environment you're in before you trade. That is the most basic rule of investing. The second rule is to understand which is the leading indicator. The stock market is the leading indicator of the economy, not the other way around. If you get it wrong, every trading decision will be based on the wrong assumption. You really need to understand fundamentals before even looking at technical aspect. Stockbroking is a profession and you cannot move from one profession to another without studying the markets. There are no shortcuts.
If you really understand the markets and how the four environmental factors influence shares - economy, politics, business and technology - then your gut instinct starts to kick in. It only does the better your knowledge and skills. It's different than reacting on fear or greed. Gut instinct is not emotion. It comes with experience.
A good trader must have complete discipline, work ethic, commit to the trading strategy (not breaking its own rules) and the work schedule. A good trader needs to understand that if anything happens in the Asian markets, how would that ripple-effect South Africa, for example? We are heading towards a 24 hour market, where we can trade anytime. The Internet didn't give an advantage, it just made possible for trading hours to become more complex.
There are unrealistic expectation to trading. Most people want to trade global markets in a matter of weeks, whereas they took several years to be in their current profession. Unfortunately it's not like that and you need to understand the market, what the technical indicators do and what to do when something happens in the market.
Markets move in an irrational manner. It's not always buy when a share price goes up. Sometimes shares prices fall with good news and go up following bad news. If the market expected better news than the news that came out, the share price falls, if the market expected worse news than the news that came out, the share price rises.
As a trader, you must know what these things mean. You can learn to trade. The better your knowledge, the more you can trade. You must have full knowledge of the companies you're buying shares from. What do the companies do? How different are they from the competitors? How did the share prices performed in the last months?
Where do you start? First establish a long-term portfolio and only then move to the futures market. You must first succeed in these before being comfortable with short-term portfolios. You need knowledge and then to built up capital. You have both currency and country risks in global markets. Try and look at a virtual portfolio and understand it before trading with real money.
Will a mentor help? Certainly. Mentorship is individual assistance and helps you build knowledge. It's comforting to know you have someone to call and ask for advice. Traders, especially in the beginning, need someone experienced to be there for them. When they want to buy shares, they should look at random shares, think about them and analyse them before trading. When they do it, they know they are doing it with the knowledge behind it.
A trader must always have a stop-loss. If the share price falls below that, you move the share. If you have a stop-loss strategy, use it. In the market you can make money with share prices falling. The skilled, disciplined trader will say: There are no problems in the market, only opportunities. Magliolo claims that famine, floods and war are good and it shocks many people. If you don't agree, then you're not ready for day trading. Because day trading is exactly that. Disasters create demands for companies to supply - you get the big picture. It's not a nice thing to say, but a true trader will take advantage of the situation. You need to get to that mentality and accept it.
You would perhaps wonder how effective is trading in global markets as a wealth creation tool, as opposed to other means of investments like retirement funds or property investment. The question is: Why should anyone in the world be limited to invest only in their country? One should be able to move money anywhere in the world as he pleases. If one country collapses, you should be able to move you money and be competitive worldwide.
Real estate investments are assets limited to the environmental factors - imagine selling and moving the money, it will take months for the transfers, plus fees and taxes. You can buy shares in property companies - the stock market is available for every single aspect, derivatives, bonds, gold shares and so on. With day trading, there is no waste, cash is transferred into your account immediately. That's what the extremely wealthy investors do. Day trading is part of their routine - so why shouldn't you go for it?
The Currency Exchange Trap in Trading Global Markets, and My Question to Jim Rogers
Picture this: you live outside the US, let's say Australia, you think the price of Oil is going to appreciate over the next month or two. Your options are to buy the commodity through the futures markets, buy a CFD, or buy an 'oil' based ETF. Either way, you will be buying an oil based asset and in which currency? The US dollar.
What happens? Well the price of Oil appreciates, and low and behold, so too does your purchase (whichever that may be), in fact it appreciates 20% over two months. Nice! Then something strikes you. You look at your financial statement only to be reminded that your sale price has been converted back to Australian dollars; naturally, this is where you live and so too does your broker.
So, what do you do, you flip back through your statements to the day when you made the initial purchase to see what it cost you in Australian dollars and then Whammo!, it hits you, as you realize your purchase price in Australian dollars was 10% more than what you just received. You didn't make a 20% gain, you made a 10% loss! The Australian dollar appreciated during those two months.
The famous investor Jim Rogers was on CNBC one morning, so I decided to email a question to Martin Soong, to be directed to Jim Rogers, and the question simply was in general, "in your investing of commodities, all of which are priced in US dollars, how do you account for the fluctuations in your own currency?" You can see the interview, my question (around the 58 second mark), and his response here: (See Below). His answer was basically, it is hard to make money. Admittedly, I was a little disappointed with his answer, as his investment horizon is far more longer term than mine and as such I would have thought it an even more crucial factor for him than me, but it may also be that being as seasoned as he is, it may be something he does more instinctively or at a subconscious level.
Anyway, the point is, currencies can be volatile and can appreciate or depreciate massive amounts against other currencies at breakneck speed, and unless you are prepared for it, you may face losses in what appear to be good trades. We will look at a simple rule of thumb approach, as there are always other factors, including time, leverage and interest costs associated with that leverage.
The most general way to look at it if you are looking at overseas markets, and provided your trade ends up being correct, is that if you feel your own currency is going to strengthen, you are better off finding markets to short. If you feel your currency is going to weaken, then look for markets to go long. If you think your currency will be range bound, then you are a lot safer to play either way (long or short). If you go long a market and your currency also strengthens, this will reduce your profit potential (or even create losses as per example above). If however, you go short a market and your currency also depreciates, you have what is called a double whammy in your favour.
Let's look at some simple examples to demonstrate this (these examples are not taking into account brokerage costs, or the use of leverage), and let's for illustrative purposes, give the Australian dollar the value of exactly one US dollar at the point of the initial transaction and show the changes from there.
You purchase a US stock for $100. This will cost you $100 in US dollars, and obviously, $100 in Australian dollars. Look at what happens over a period of time, when the stock goes up 10%, and when the Australian dollar changes.
Purchase price $USD_____100______100______100
AUD/USD Rate____________1.00_____0.90_____1.10
Sale price in $USD______110______110______110
Value in $AUD___________110______122.22___100
Percent change__________+10______+22.22___-10
We used a simple 10% change in the AU dollar, and a 10% appreciation of the US stock. When the AU dollar appreciated by 10%, the trade ended up being an overall loser of 10% in AU dollars, even though it went up 10% in US dollars. However, when the AU dollar, depreciated by 10%, the trade ended up being a 22.2% gain in AU dollars, even though it was only 10% in US dollars.
So I hope this illustrates how the change in currency exchange rates does affect the overall performance of any overseas trade on your financial statement.
What happens? Well the price of Oil appreciates, and low and behold, so too does your purchase (whichever that may be), in fact it appreciates 20% over two months. Nice! Then something strikes you. You look at your financial statement only to be reminded that your sale price has been converted back to Australian dollars; naturally, this is where you live and so too does your broker.
So, what do you do, you flip back through your statements to the day when you made the initial purchase to see what it cost you in Australian dollars and then Whammo!, it hits you, as you realize your purchase price in Australian dollars was 10% more than what you just received. You didn't make a 20% gain, you made a 10% loss! The Australian dollar appreciated during those two months.
The famous investor Jim Rogers was on CNBC one morning, so I decided to email a question to Martin Soong, to be directed to Jim Rogers, and the question simply was in general, "in your investing of commodities, all of which are priced in US dollars, how do you account for the fluctuations in your own currency?" You can see the interview, my question (around the 58 second mark), and his response here: (See Below). His answer was basically, it is hard to make money. Admittedly, I was a little disappointed with his answer, as his investment horizon is far more longer term than mine and as such I would have thought it an even more crucial factor for him than me, but it may also be that being as seasoned as he is, it may be something he does more instinctively or at a subconscious level.
Anyway, the point is, currencies can be volatile and can appreciate or depreciate massive amounts against other currencies at breakneck speed, and unless you are prepared for it, you may face losses in what appear to be good trades. We will look at a simple rule of thumb approach, as there are always other factors, including time, leverage and interest costs associated with that leverage.
The most general way to look at it if you are looking at overseas markets, and provided your trade ends up being correct, is that if you feel your own currency is going to strengthen, you are better off finding markets to short. If you feel your currency is going to weaken, then look for markets to go long. If you think your currency will be range bound, then you are a lot safer to play either way (long or short). If you go long a market and your currency also strengthens, this will reduce your profit potential (or even create losses as per example above). If however, you go short a market and your currency also depreciates, you have what is called a double whammy in your favour.
Let's look at some simple examples to demonstrate this (these examples are not taking into account brokerage costs, or the use of leverage), and let's for illustrative purposes, give the Australian dollar the value of exactly one US dollar at the point of the initial transaction and show the changes from there.
You purchase a US stock for $100. This will cost you $100 in US dollars, and obviously, $100 in Australian dollars. Look at what happens over a period of time, when the stock goes up 10%, and when the Australian dollar changes.
Purchase price $USD_____100______100______100
AUD/USD Rate____________1.00_____0.90_____1.10
Sale price in $USD______110______110______110
Value in $AUD___________110______122.22___100
Percent change__________+10______+22.22___-10
We used a simple 10% change in the AU dollar, and a 10% appreciation of the US stock. When the AU dollar appreciated by 10%, the trade ended up being an overall loser of 10% in AU dollars, even though it went up 10% in US dollars. However, when the AU dollar, depreciated by 10%, the trade ended up being a 22.2% gain in AU dollars, even though it was only 10% in US dollars.
So I hope this illustrates how the change in currency exchange rates does affect the overall performance of any overseas trade on your financial statement.
Strategies For Reaching Global Markets - Exporting
With increase in technology, companies today must be more willing to evolve than ever before. Although business is evolving much faster than much of the government and private sectors, today's businesses have to stay ahead of the curve by being knowledgeable about changes in technology as well as continuing to find new ways to be competitive and meet customer demands. Often, this involves learning to compete on a global level, and exporting is often one of the ways that many of today's corporations and small businesses can increase profits while boosting the local economy.
Unlike offshore outsourcing, exporting is a way of increasing revenues while still creating local jobs. In the US, the Department of Commerce has created local Export Assistance Centers in nearly every state that can help many small businesses export their products and become more competitive. With over 85 percent of US businesses being small to medium sized businesses, these kinds of businesses often do not have the resources, technology, or know how to implement exporting strategies, and these centers help teach these kinds of skills to small business owners and allow for increased technology among today's smaller organizations.
While the majority of US export in all states continue to be primarily to Canada and Mexico as a result of the North American Free Trade Agreement, exports to other countries are continuing to increase as well, with emerging markets centered around parts of Europe, Australia, and even some sectors of the Middle East. In contrast, imports from Southeast Asia continue to rapidly increase, fueling greater demand for more US exports in an effort to further boost the economy. Between 1994 and 2004, it was estimated that small to medium sized businesses accounted for nearly 98 percent of all US exports, and it is expected that within the next five to ten years, these kinds of exports will increase substantially through the result of greater technology and educational efforts.
Many of these EACs are essential to promoting this kind of much-needed growth in the export sector. Many small business owners continue to be reluctant to engage in any kind of foreign trade, and the fact that these EACs often deal directly with foreign customs offices and can match buyers with sellers as well as provide needed documentation greatly eases the burden for many of these organizations. Other helpful organizations that can help small businesses get started in exporting are export trading companies, which specialize in mediation and assuring that US companies get paid for their exports. Often, these kinds of companies will also provide a great deal of training and education about exporting as well.
Unlike offshore outsourcing, exporting is a way of increasing revenues while still creating local jobs. In the US, the Department of Commerce has created local Export Assistance Centers in nearly every state that can help many small businesses export their products and become more competitive. With over 85 percent of US businesses being small to medium sized businesses, these kinds of businesses often do not have the resources, technology, or know how to implement exporting strategies, and these centers help teach these kinds of skills to small business owners and allow for increased technology among today's smaller organizations.
While the majority of US export in all states continue to be primarily to Canada and Mexico as a result of the North American Free Trade Agreement, exports to other countries are continuing to increase as well, with emerging markets centered around parts of Europe, Australia, and even some sectors of the Middle East. In contrast, imports from Southeast Asia continue to rapidly increase, fueling greater demand for more US exports in an effort to further boost the economy. Between 1994 and 2004, it was estimated that small to medium sized businesses accounted for nearly 98 percent of all US exports, and it is expected that within the next five to ten years, these kinds of exports will increase substantially through the result of greater technology and educational efforts.
Many of these EACs are essential to promoting this kind of much-needed growth in the export sector. Many small business owners continue to be reluctant to engage in any kind of foreign trade, and the fact that these EACs often deal directly with foreign customs offices and can match buyers with sellers as well as provide needed documentation greatly eases the burden for many of these organizations. Other helpful organizations that can help small businesses get started in exporting are export trading companies, which specialize in mediation and assuring that US companies get paid for their exports. Often, these kinds of companies will also provide a great deal of training and education about exporting as well.
Global Market Relationships - Don't Forget the News
As I have been saying, 2010 will be an interesting year in the markets, and this week only supports my contention. Many bearish voices are suggesting a correction is coming, but we have been hearing this since March of last year. Nonetheless, something bearish is afoot, as the world wrestles with the continuing ramifications related to recovering from the worst economic collapse since the 1930s. Here is where we are this week.
The risk aversion following the 2-day slide in the markets has supported safe haven currencies such as the dollar and the yen, sending commodities lower. Amid this backdrop and in the absence of any key economic report, the major averages may fight to hold key support levels. - World Daily Markets Bulletin
The factors contributing to this bearish influence are global in scope, and they offer insight into just how interrelated all the global markets have become, and, as we will see at the end of this article, how one less-discussed factor just might be a prime mover in the market of today.
China, the driver of today's economic recovery, is so "hot" it is tapping the brakes on its rapidly growing GDP, which hit 10.7% in Q4. China announced it would begin reducing liquidity in its markets. The announcement of this "normalization" process immediately and negatively impacted the global equity and commodity markets, but positively affected the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen. One might argue that this relationship is typical, and so it is, but now factor into that the possibility that China has a larger problem with its developing housing bubble. Housing prices have jumped some 70% in the last two years. Put that together with an over-stimulated economy, a government that is putting on the monetary brakes, and you now have one huge market (China as a whole) acting as a drag on the global economy.
Fine, China is China, and we know that its debt-free and rapidly growing economy is influencing the global markets, but what about our markets right here in the U.S.? We have mixed economic data indicating our recovery is happening, but it is not quite solid in its footing. Q4 corporate earnings for the most part have been strong, but some would argue that is true only because of major cost-cutting and tighter inventories. The fact that unemployment is stubbornly hanging around 10%, and credit is still not leaching down to small business and the average consumer leads one to think that it might be some time before the U.S. begins a more accelerated recovery, which means that our deficit and debt will continue to grow. This reality turns us back to China. Since China has been buying up much of our debt, the economic thinkers there must be calculating that if America is too slow in its economic recovery and China is too rapid, the imbalance will hurt China more than it hurts the U.S. After all, we are the number one importer of Chinese goods and they hold almost one-trillion dollars of our debt, so to protect the balance of trade and to protect their investment in our Treasury bonds, not to mention Chinese corporate investment in our country, the Chinese government must "tap the brakes" and wait for us to catch up. They really have no choice.
The broad inter-market relationship between Chinese economic policy and our own economic recovery is clear, but what about economic policy right here in the U.S.? How does that fit into the relationship outlined above, and what impact is that likely to have on the U.S. equity markets?
Clearly, the rest of the world is watching how we handle our economic recovery, and now they are watching our response to the factors that brought us all to the place we are today. Re-regulating the financial industry in this country is a complicated, politically charged, and potentially disruptive process. Will the new regulations be enough or too little? With the lobbyists get more for this sector than that sector? Will those segments of the American public looking for a scapegoat draw the blood they seek? In the short term, will the reformation talk allow bears to swallow us all? In the long term, will the new regulations actually do anything to curb the excesses of those who profit from excessive speculation and actually help prevent another meltdown? The lack of answers to these questions at this juncture all contribute to an already jittery market, a market that flourishes on stability and flounders on uncertainty. Thus, part of the bearish revival this week is directly attributable to government discussion of financial reform.
All of this is interesting, but one might ask, so what? None of what has been discussed today is unknown, or particularly enlightening for that matter. In this, the Information Age, it is difficult to produce information and conclusions someone somewhere has not already analyzed or discussed, which brings me to the most interesting part of this week, this year, and the foreseeable future, as it relates to markets, and the influence of markets on one another.
Relatively speaking, the discussion about the importance of the media in terms of its impact on governments, corporate policy, and the markets is minimal. Although it is not quantifiable, an inductive conclusion is that the impact is huge. The ubiquitous and pervasive 24-hour news cycle has become a fight for ratings, as well as an agenda-driven enterprise. The fight for ratings produces much, much more bad news than good and the agenda-driven nature of analysts and pundits on the news clearly has an impact on which direction the markets move. As traders and investors, we understand that news drives markets, but do we truly understand the influence of the constant pounding of one notion, the impact of "reporting" one news items over and over again? You see, the problem is not the news; that is a necessary and important part of the market. No, the problem is the excessive and repetitive "chatter" that goes on sometimes for weeks at a time. The more a story is told, the truer it becomes, much like a self-fulfilling prophecy. How does one factor this into the reality of market behavior? What is truly interesting to think about is how does one quantifiably factor that influence into his or her trading/investment decision-making process? Since the market represents our mass trading/investment consciousness, the answer might be that as individuals, we just might not have any choice but to go with the flow. This cynical perspective might not be true now, but as time goes on, and the news media continues to consolidate and continues to "drive" the news as opposed to just reporting the news, one has to wonder. Yes, this has been an interesting week and 2010 promises to be an interesting year as we start the second decade of this new century. My, how time flies when you're having fun!
Best Wishes,
Lou Mendelsohn
Louis B. Mendelsohn is a world renowned pioneer in the application of personal computers and trading software to the global financial markets. He is President and Chief Executive Officer of Market Technologies which he founded in 1979 to develop technical analysis trading software for the commodity futures markets. Mr. Mendelsohn, himself, began trading equities and stock options in the early 1970s. Then, in the late 1970s he switched to commodities, as both a day and position trader, and developed trading software for the commodities futures markets.
Mr. Mendelsohn along with his research and development team, The Predictive Technologies Group, has been focused on the accelerating globalization of the financial markets and has continued to make improvements to VantagePoint's predictive accuracy ( http://www.tradertech.com ), which now makes trend forecasts for more than 600 global financial markets with up to 86% forecast accuracy*. These achievements have been responsible for Market Technologies' phenomenal growth over the past decade, with thousands of trading software customers in nearly 100 countries worldwide, and three wins since 2004 in the Inc. magazine competition of the fastest growing privately-held companies in the United States.
Mr. Mendelsohn is a prolific author, having written dozens of articles on technical analysis and the global financial system in such publications as Barron's; Futures; The Journal of Trading; Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities; Stocks, Futures and Options Magazine; and the Journal of Commerce.
Mr. Mendelsohn has been widely quoted in other financial publications over the past quarter-century, including the Wall Street Journal and Investor's Business Daily, has contributed to more than half a dozen books on the global financial markets, has been interviewed live on CNN, Bloomberg, and CNBC, and since 2000 has authored three books on the global financial markets.
The risk aversion following the 2-day slide in the markets has supported safe haven currencies such as the dollar and the yen, sending commodities lower. Amid this backdrop and in the absence of any key economic report, the major averages may fight to hold key support levels. - World Daily Markets Bulletin
The factors contributing to this bearish influence are global in scope, and they offer insight into just how interrelated all the global markets have become, and, as we will see at the end of this article, how one less-discussed factor just might be a prime mover in the market of today.
China, the driver of today's economic recovery, is so "hot" it is tapping the brakes on its rapidly growing GDP, which hit 10.7% in Q4. China announced it would begin reducing liquidity in its markets. The announcement of this "normalization" process immediately and negatively impacted the global equity and commodity markets, but positively affected the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen. One might argue that this relationship is typical, and so it is, but now factor into that the possibility that China has a larger problem with its developing housing bubble. Housing prices have jumped some 70% in the last two years. Put that together with an over-stimulated economy, a government that is putting on the monetary brakes, and you now have one huge market (China as a whole) acting as a drag on the global economy.
Fine, China is China, and we know that its debt-free and rapidly growing economy is influencing the global markets, but what about our markets right here in the U.S.? We have mixed economic data indicating our recovery is happening, but it is not quite solid in its footing. Q4 corporate earnings for the most part have been strong, but some would argue that is true only because of major cost-cutting and tighter inventories. The fact that unemployment is stubbornly hanging around 10%, and credit is still not leaching down to small business and the average consumer leads one to think that it might be some time before the U.S. begins a more accelerated recovery, which means that our deficit and debt will continue to grow. This reality turns us back to China. Since China has been buying up much of our debt, the economic thinkers there must be calculating that if America is too slow in its economic recovery and China is too rapid, the imbalance will hurt China more than it hurts the U.S. After all, we are the number one importer of Chinese goods and they hold almost one-trillion dollars of our debt, so to protect the balance of trade and to protect their investment in our Treasury bonds, not to mention Chinese corporate investment in our country, the Chinese government must "tap the brakes" and wait for us to catch up. They really have no choice.
The broad inter-market relationship between Chinese economic policy and our own economic recovery is clear, but what about economic policy right here in the U.S.? How does that fit into the relationship outlined above, and what impact is that likely to have on the U.S. equity markets?
Clearly, the rest of the world is watching how we handle our economic recovery, and now they are watching our response to the factors that brought us all to the place we are today. Re-regulating the financial industry in this country is a complicated, politically charged, and potentially disruptive process. Will the new regulations be enough or too little? With the lobbyists get more for this sector than that sector? Will those segments of the American public looking for a scapegoat draw the blood they seek? In the short term, will the reformation talk allow bears to swallow us all? In the long term, will the new regulations actually do anything to curb the excesses of those who profit from excessive speculation and actually help prevent another meltdown? The lack of answers to these questions at this juncture all contribute to an already jittery market, a market that flourishes on stability and flounders on uncertainty. Thus, part of the bearish revival this week is directly attributable to government discussion of financial reform.
All of this is interesting, but one might ask, so what? None of what has been discussed today is unknown, or particularly enlightening for that matter. In this, the Information Age, it is difficult to produce information and conclusions someone somewhere has not already analyzed or discussed, which brings me to the most interesting part of this week, this year, and the foreseeable future, as it relates to markets, and the influence of markets on one another.
Relatively speaking, the discussion about the importance of the media in terms of its impact on governments, corporate policy, and the markets is minimal. Although it is not quantifiable, an inductive conclusion is that the impact is huge. The ubiquitous and pervasive 24-hour news cycle has become a fight for ratings, as well as an agenda-driven enterprise. The fight for ratings produces much, much more bad news than good and the agenda-driven nature of analysts and pundits on the news clearly has an impact on which direction the markets move. As traders and investors, we understand that news drives markets, but do we truly understand the influence of the constant pounding of one notion, the impact of "reporting" one news items over and over again? You see, the problem is not the news; that is a necessary and important part of the market. No, the problem is the excessive and repetitive "chatter" that goes on sometimes for weeks at a time. The more a story is told, the truer it becomes, much like a self-fulfilling prophecy. How does one factor this into the reality of market behavior? What is truly interesting to think about is how does one quantifiably factor that influence into his or her trading/investment decision-making process? Since the market represents our mass trading/investment consciousness, the answer might be that as individuals, we just might not have any choice but to go with the flow. This cynical perspective might not be true now, but as time goes on, and the news media continues to consolidate and continues to "drive" the news as opposed to just reporting the news, one has to wonder. Yes, this has been an interesting week and 2010 promises to be an interesting year as we start the second decade of this new century. My, how time flies when you're having fun!
Best Wishes,
Lou Mendelsohn
Louis B. Mendelsohn is a world renowned pioneer in the application of personal computers and trading software to the global financial markets. He is President and Chief Executive Officer of Market Technologies which he founded in 1979 to develop technical analysis trading software for the commodity futures markets. Mr. Mendelsohn, himself, began trading equities and stock options in the early 1970s. Then, in the late 1970s he switched to commodities, as both a day and position trader, and developed trading software for the commodities futures markets.
Mr. Mendelsohn along with his research and development team, The Predictive Technologies Group, has been focused on the accelerating globalization of the financial markets and has continued to make improvements to VantagePoint's predictive accuracy ( http://www.tradertech.com ), which now makes trend forecasts for more than 600 global financial markets with up to 86% forecast accuracy*. These achievements have been responsible for Market Technologies' phenomenal growth over the past decade, with thousands of trading software customers in nearly 100 countries worldwide, and three wins since 2004 in the Inc. magazine competition of the fastest growing privately-held companies in the United States.
Mr. Mendelsohn is a prolific author, having written dozens of articles on technical analysis and the global financial system in such publications as Barron's; Futures; The Journal of Trading; Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities; Stocks, Futures and Options Magazine; and the Journal of Commerce.
Mr. Mendelsohn has been widely quoted in other financial publications over the past quarter-century, including the Wall Street Journal and Investor's Business Daily, has contributed to more than half a dozen books on the global financial markets, has been interviewed live on CNN, Bloomberg, and CNBC, and since 2000 has authored three books on the global financial markets.
Strategies For Reaching Global Markets - Licensing
In today's increasingly competitive and continuously evolving global business environment, many businesses are searching for new ways to reach the global market. While large corporations have been competing globally and outsourcing to foreign economies for a period of time now, many small businesses are beginning to enter the global scene in an effort to remain competitive and fuel greater revenues. There are many different ways to access the global market through a number of different strategies, but this article will focus on product licensing, and how entrepreneurs can make use of licensing in order to become more efficient, keep overhead low, and still realize considerable profit margins.
The act of licensing is paying royalty fees to a foreign manufacturer in order to produce goods under a companies trademark. In essence, you are allowing a foreign company to produce your products. Generally, a company representative will meet with the foreign manufacturer in order to set up a licensing agreement. The benefits of licensing in decreased costs of production and the eliminated hassle of managing a local production facility. Often, a licensing agreement will still allow the company, or licensor, to oversee distribution, promotion, or consulting, and other aspects of the business.
Foreign licensing agreements have been very profitable for a number of todays larger corporations, including Nike, Schweppes, and even Walt Disney. In China, many of Disney's theme park operations are overseen and operated by a Tokyo company, and Disney simply collects management and consulting fees for the operations. While licensors often spend little money to enter into a licensing agreement, and still has the ability to generate revenues, there are still a number of disadvantages for the licensor.
Many times, licensors must enter into a licensing contract for an extensive period of time, sometimes twenty years or longer, and if the product experiences rapid growth during this period of time, the majority of the profits belong to the licensee. For this reason, a carefully crafted licensing agreement is often needed. Perhaps one of the biggest disadvantages of licensing for many companies, however, is based on the fact that through consulting, the company is actually selling its technology and expertise to the offshore licensee.
When a foreign company has the ability to learn the methods and practices of the licensor, there is often the threat that the licensee will break the contract or agreement and begin manufacturing the product on its own. Although the licensee is prohibited from using the trademark or company name of the product, many of these companies are often able to produce the same products under a different name. One of the clearest examples of this can be seen with the increase in knock off or OEM products being produced in China and then marketed back to the US and other countries. American companies have sought to minimize the damage of this within the US by attempting to restrict the sale of these kinds of goods in the US.
The act of licensing is paying royalty fees to a foreign manufacturer in order to produce goods under a companies trademark. In essence, you are allowing a foreign company to produce your products. Generally, a company representative will meet with the foreign manufacturer in order to set up a licensing agreement. The benefits of licensing in decreased costs of production and the eliminated hassle of managing a local production facility. Often, a licensing agreement will still allow the company, or licensor, to oversee distribution, promotion, or consulting, and other aspects of the business.
Foreign licensing agreements have been very profitable for a number of todays larger corporations, including Nike, Schweppes, and even Walt Disney. In China, many of Disney's theme park operations are overseen and operated by a Tokyo company, and Disney simply collects management and consulting fees for the operations. While licensors often spend little money to enter into a licensing agreement, and still has the ability to generate revenues, there are still a number of disadvantages for the licensor.
Many times, licensors must enter into a licensing contract for an extensive period of time, sometimes twenty years or longer, and if the product experiences rapid growth during this period of time, the majority of the profits belong to the licensee. For this reason, a carefully crafted licensing agreement is often needed. Perhaps one of the biggest disadvantages of licensing for many companies, however, is based on the fact that through consulting, the company is actually selling its technology and expertise to the offshore licensee.
When a foreign company has the ability to learn the methods and practices of the licensor, there is often the threat that the licensee will break the contract or agreement and begin manufacturing the product on its own. Although the licensee is prohibited from using the trademark or company name of the product, many of these companies are often able to produce the same products under a different name. One of the clearest examples of this can be seen with the increase in knock off or OEM products being produced in China and then marketed back to the US and other countries. American companies have sought to minimize the damage of this within the US by attempting to restrict the sale of these kinds of goods in the US.
Strategies For Reaching Global Markets - Contract Manufacturing and Joint Ventures
With many companies scrambling today to become more competitive on a global level and meet consumer demands for lower prices, many of the methods for reaching global markets and joint ventures with foreign firms are looking more and more attractive. One of the options available to product manufacturers is contract manufacturing with foreign producers. Much like licensing, contract manufacturing involves a foreign company that produces goods for another company. However, where licensing involves the manufacturer using the company's trademark or brand name under license and the sale of consulting services on the part of the licensor, contract manufacturing involves a company that already produces a private-label product and another company attaching their brand name or trademark.
In contract manufacturing, the manufacturer has no rights to the trademark. Contract manufacturing is often a form of offshore outsourcing where a company produces a product for a specific brand. Examples of this can be seen in a number of large US corporations. Singapore contract manufacturers often produce cell phones and other electronics for a number of US brands, and China is a leading contract manufacturer for US computers and laptops like Dell.
The benefits of contract manufacturing for startup companies or smaller businesses can be great, as contract manufacturing often allows these companies to experiment with different product variations in different markets without having hefty production costs associated with a local manufacturing facility. In addition, for established companies, production of successful products can easily be expanded to meet new demands without incurring additional costs and overhead.
Aside from contract manufacturing, forming international joint ventures and strategic alliances are also great ways to expand into the global market. However, these type of joint ventures have traditionally been used more by larger corporations. A joint venture is a type of arrangement where two companies join together for a particular project. Examples of this are often seen in the motor industry where American car companies enter into a joint venture with Asian car manufacturers in order to produce vehicles for all markets. The two companies, which are often from two separate countries, share technology and risks associated with the project, along with marketing and management skills.
The advantage of these kinds of ventures is that many companies who would not otherwise be able to enter some markets are able to work together with local companies that have access to those markets. A strategic alliance is much of the same thing, tying together two or more companies with a common goal. However, in a strategic alliance, companies typically do not share costs, management, or profits. While these kinds of arrangements can be beneficial at reaching other markets, the disadvantages are much like in a licensing agreement, where one company can take the other companies technology and expertise, leave the arrangement, and use the ideas to promote their own company or profits.
In contract manufacturing, the manufacturer has no rights to the trademark. Contract manufacturing is often a form of offshore outsourcing where a company produces a product for a specific brand. Examples of this can be seen in a number of large US corporations. Singapore contract manufacturers often produce cell phones and other electronics for a number of US brands, and China is a leading contract manufacturer for US computers and laptops like Dell.
The benefits of contract manufacturing for startup companies or smaller businesses can be great, as contract manufacturing often allows these companies to experiment with different product variations in different markets without having hefty production costs associated with a local manufacturing facility. In addition, for established companies, production of successful products can easily be expanded to meet new demands without incurring additional costs and overhead.
Aside from contract manufacturing, forming international joint ventures and strategic alliances are also great ways to expand into the global market. However, these type of joint ventures have traditionally been used more by larger corporations. A joint venture is a type of arrangement where two companies join together for a particular project. Examples of this are often seen in the motor industry where American car companies enter into a joint venture with Asian car manufacturers in order to produce vehicles for all markets. The two companies, which are often from two separate countries, share technology and risks associated with the project, along with marketing and management skills.
The advantage of these kinds of ventures is that many companies who would not otherwise be able to enter some markets are able to work together with local companies that have access to those markets. A strategic alliance is much of the same thing, tying together two or more companies with a common goal. However, in a strategic alliance, companies typically do not share costs, management, or profits. While these kinds of arrangements can be beneficial at reaching other markets, the disadvantages are much like in a licensing agreement, where one company can take the other companies technology and expertise, leave the arrangement, and use the ideas to promote their own company or profits.
2011 - A Year Of Odd Global Market Divergences!
Global economies and stock markets have always had a strong tendency to move in lockstep with each other. That tendency has become even more pronounced as global economies have become increasingly dependent on each other in international trade of their goods and services.
So the divergences this year have been rather odd.
The U.S. economy stumbled in the first half of the year, resulting in the U.S. stock market tumbling into a quite serious correction in the summer months, with the S&P 500 down 20% at one point. But the economy began recovering in the fall, and the U.S. stock market has been in an impressive rally since its early October low, the Dow gaining 15% from that low, and closing up approximately 6% for the year.
In the process it has broken out above its important long-term 200-day moving average again, its bull market that began in early 2009 still intact. And it enters the new year near a new rally high, and with economic reports increasingly positive.
But far from moving in tandem, numerous markets outside of the U.S. have been quite ugly in 2011.
For instance, China, the world's 2nd largest economy, sees its stock market in a quite serious bear market, down 30% over the last 13 months, and entering the new year still in a negative downtrend.
And that's in spite of China's economic strength still being at a level that's the envy of the rest of the world. China's economy has grown at an average annual rate of 10% for more than 30 years (which is how it has become the world's 2nd largest economy).
Economists estimate that China's growth slowed to 9% this year, and will slow further to 8.5% next year. But that compares to Goldman Sach's estimates that U.S economic growth, which has been recovering from the first half slowdown, will still only reach 3% next year.
The stock markets of other large Asian countries like India, Hong Kong, and Japan have not experienced the resilience seen in the U.S. market either. They are in bear markets, down 26%, 26%, and 22% respectively as they enter the new year.
It's not much different in Europe where the stock markets in Germany and France, the eurozone's two largest economies, enter the new year also in bear markets, down 22% and 24% respectively, although higher than at their October lows.
Can the U.S. market continue to outperform the rest of the world next year?
The U.S. economy continues to recover from the severe recession of 2008. The employment picture, although still dismal, is improving, with the unemployment rate down to 8.6% in November, its lowest level in three years, and the four-week average of new weekly unemployment claims at their lowest level since June, 2008. Consumer confidence is at its highest level since last April, factory output is rising, and even the housing industry is finally showing signs of recovering.
The biggest threat is that the debt crisis in Europe might finally implode and push Europe into an economic recession that would spread around the world to include the U.S. The markets in Europe and Asia seem to have factored that possibility into stock prices with their bear markets of 2011.
However, encouraging assessments regarding the eurozone debt crisis have begun creeping out from under the year's overwhelmingly negative headlines, with some economists now predicting the crisis will be contained by recent measures undertaken by the EU and ECB, and will be more permanently resolved by mid-2012.
If markets in Asia and Europe begin to factor in a positive outcome, or even just that the crisis will be kicked down the road again, their bear markets would likely end and be replaced with new bull markets. That would free the U.S. market from the drag they have had on it, and the U.S. market rally could indeed have further to run, with global markets moving in tandem again giving it a further push
So the divergences this year have been rather odd.
The U.S. economy stumbled in the first half of the year, resulting in the U.S. stock market tumbling into a quite serious correction in the summer months, with the S&P 500 down 20% at one point. But the economy began recovering in the fall, and the U.S. stock market has been in an impressive rally since its early October low, the Dow gaining 15% from that low, and closing up approximately 6% for the year.
In the process it has broken out above its important long-term 200-day moving average again, its bull market that began in early 2009 still intact. And it enters the new year near a new rally high, and with economic reports increasingly positive.
But far from moving in tandem, numerous markets outside of the U.S. have been quite ugly in 2011.
For instance, China, the world's 2nd largest economy, sees its stock market in a quite serious bear market, down 30% over the last 13 months, and entering the new year still in a negative downtrend.
And that's in spite of China's economic strength still being at a level that's the envy of the rest of the world. China's economy has grown at an average annual rate of 10% for more than 30 years (which is how it has become the world's 2nd largest economy).
Economists estimate that China's growth slowed to 9% this year, and will slow further to 8.5% next year. But that compares to Goldman Sach's estimates that U.S economic growth, which has been recovering from the first half slowdown, will still only reach 3% next year.
The stock markets of other large Asian countries like India, Hong Kong, and Japan have not experienced the resilience seen in the U.S. market either. They are in bear markets, down 26%, 26%, and 22% respectively as they enter the new year.
It's not much different in Europe where the stock markets in Germany and France, the eurozone's two largest economies, enter the new year also in bear markets, down 22% and 24% respectively, although higher than at their October lows.
Can the U.S. market continue to outperform the rest of the world next year?
The U.S. economy continues to recover from the severe recession of 2008. The employment picture, although still dismal, is improving, with the unemployment rate down to 8.6% in November, its lowest level in three years, and the four-week average of new weekly unemployment claims at their lowest level since June, 2008. Consumer confidence is at its highest level since last April, factory output is rising, and even the housing industry is finally showing signs of recovering.
The biggest threat is that the debt crisis in Europe might finally implode and push Europe into an economic recession that would spread around the world to include the U.S. The markets in Europe and Asia seem to have factored that possibility into stock prices with their bear markets of 2011.
However, encouraging assessments regarding the eurozone debt crisis have begun creeping out from under the year's overwhelmingly negative headlines, with some economists now predicting the crisis will be contained by recent measures undertaken by the EU and ECB, and will be more permanently resolved by mid-2012.
If markets in Asia and Europe begin to factor in a positive outcome, or even just that the crisis will be kicked down the road again, their bear markets would likely end and be replaced with new bull markets. That would free the U.S. market from the drag they have had on it, and the U.S. market rally could indeed have further to run, with global markets moving in tandem again giving it a further push
Vintage and Decorative Glassware Reach Global Markets on B2B Portals
Besides expanding your knowledge and providing many hours of fun, vintage sparks a new interest in shopping as well as that of decorating. Getting your hands on the choicest piece of object you are looking for takes you on a journey of thrill and satisfaction which cannot be described until you have experienced it.
Vintages and antiques are popular, and many of us have been in love with the splendor of vintages all our lives. Of the many antiquities and vintages available, hand blown glass figurines are much desirable and are still as sought after as ever.
These gorgeous pieces are collected all over the world and they come in various styles and designs. The Russian glass animal figurines are some of the most popular and highly desired pieces around today. Almost every animal imaginable can be found recreated and blown as a glass figure. The cat figurines and dog figurines are some of the most popular. Many enjoy collecting all kinds of animals though, ranging from small horse figurines to larger tiger figurines.
Glass blowing, as a tradition, has been around for centuries and is one of the oldest known art forms. It was many centuries later than Before Christ era that the glass figurines we see today were first created. And this more sophisticated hand blown technique is used in Russia and other countries around the world to created delicate glass figurines and many different kind of glassware even to this day.
The other antique glassware would include stained glass Tiffany lamp. Few most looked after collectible glassware include old coffee pots like the old double Decker aluminum drip pots, the china drip pots and the granite percolators.
You will start sprouting ideas of your own as you see and find more vintage decorative glassware. The key to a marvelous decoration is your own creativity with vintages and antique collectibles.
However, many are not yet very familiar with the variety of these antiquities available and places to shop. The things are easily found at a vintage store or antique shop and frequently found at the local thrift store. Thrift stores are full of all kinds of glassware.
Antique malls can be a favorite too, with each booth independently owned. They are a great place to find bargains. On the other hand, to remember which booth had what and at what price may be confusing to remember. These malls are huge and one wouldn't want to buy something specific before checking all the booths.
The world of vintage is an exciting new way to shop. To add to the excitement comes shopping on a B2B Portal. Exploring an admirable hand blown Russian Glass Figurine on an Indian Trade Portal can be immensely satisfactory. To add to the fun may also be the fact that you can buy such decorative goodies on B2B trade leads without breaking the bank.
Talking about the B2B Portals, they provide Moradabad, a nondescript city, approximately 160 km from Delhi, India's capital, the global attention that it very much deserves. Moradabad, also called the "Brass City" because of its prominence in handicraft export industry which transacts with Europe and North America, finds place in a number of B2B trade leads of Indian Trade Portals and many more.
The city is noted for its glassware and brass works. It also features over 400 factories for aluminum, brass, glassware and iron products. Other flourishing industries here include handicraft, metalwork, sugar, and electroplating. The B2B Portals play a pivotal role in providing global attention to all these products as well as handicrafts manufactured in Moradabad.
Vintages and antiques are popular, and many of us have been in love with the splendor of vintages all our lives. Of the many antiquities and vintages available, hand blown glass figurines are much desirable and are still as sought after as ever.
These gorgeous pieces are collected all over the world and they come in various styles and designs. The Russian glass animal figurines are some of the most popular and highly desired pieces around today. Almost every animal imaginable can be found recreated and blown as a glass figure. The cat figurines and dog figurines are some of the most popular. Many enjoy collecting all kinds of animals though, ranging from small horse figurines to larger tiger figurines.
Glass blowing, as a tradition, has been around for centuries and is one of the oldest known art forms. It was many centuries later than Before Christ era that the glass figurines we see today were first created. And this more sophisticated hand blown technique is used in Russia and other countries around the world to created delicate glass figurines and many different kind of glassware even to this day.
The other antique glassware would include stained glass Tiffany lamp. Few most looked after collectible glassware include old coffee pots like the old double Decker aluminum drip pots, the china drip pots and the granite percolators.
You will start sprouting ideas of your own as you see and find more vintage decorative glassware. The key to a marvelous decoration is your own creativity with vintages and antique collectibles.
However, many are not yet very familiar with the variety of these antiquities available and places to shop. The things are easily found at a vintage store or antique shop and frequently found at the local thrift store. Thrift stores are full of all kinds of glassware.
Antique malls can be a favorite too, with each booth independently owned. They are a great place to find bargains. On the other hand, to remember which booth had what and at what price may be confusing to remember. These malls are huge and one wouldn't want to buy something specific before checking all the booths.
The world of vintage is an exciting new way to shop. To add to the excitement comes shopping on a B2B Portal. Exploring an admirable hand blown Russian Glass Figurine on an Indian Trade Portal can be immensely satisfactory. To add to the fun may also be the fact that you can buy such decorative goodies on B2B trade leads without breaking the bank.
Talking about the B2B Portals, they provide Moradabad, a nondescript city, approximately 160 km from Delhi, India's capital, the global attention that it very much deserves. Moradabad, also called the "Brass City" because of its prominence in handicraft export industry which transacts with Europe and North America, finds place in a number of B2B trade leads of Indian Trade Portals and many more.
The city is noted for its glassware and brass works. It also features over 400 factories for aluminum, brass, glassware and iron products. Other flourishing industries here include handicraft, metalwork, sugar, and electroplating. The B2B Portals play a pivotal role in providing global attention to all these products as well as handicrafts manufactured in Moradabad.
Seasonality and Global Markets!
When investors think of the stock market's annual seasonality, as expressed by the adage 'Sell in May and Go Away', they usually relate it to the U.S. market.
But in fact the historical pattern of stock markets making most of their gains in the winter months, and experiencing most of their bear market declines and corrections in the unfavorable summer months, is also common in global markets as well.
Since investors have become much more comfortable with investing in global markets in recent years, in fact have poured money into emerging markets at a record pace, recognition that the seasonal pattern is global is potentially of considerable importance, especially this year.
A 27-page academic study conducted at the Rotterdam School of Management in the Netherlands and published in the American Economic Review in 2002, concluded, "Surprisingly we found this inherited wisdom of Sell in May to be true in 36 of 37 developed and emerging markets. Evidence shows that in the United Kingdom the seasonal effect has been noticeable since 1694.... A trading strategy based on this anomaly would be highly profitable in many countries. The average annual risk-adjusted outperformance ranges between 1.5% and 8.9%, depending on the country being considered. The effect is robust over time, economically significant, unlikely to be caused by data-mining, and not related to taking excess risk."
Stock markets outside of the U.S. seem to be significantly in the lead on the downside in this unfavorable season. For instance, the S&P 500 is only 2% below its recent top on April 29, the last trading day of April (potentially in keeping with the 'Sell in May and Go Away' rule to sell on May 1).
However, in the rest of the world quite serious stock market corrections are underway. The important markets of China (the world's 2nd largest economy), Japan (the world's 3rd largest economy), Hong Kong, India, Brazil, and Russia are already down an average of 12% from their recent peaks, and have broken down through key support levels, including their long-term 200-day moving averages. Other important markets, including Mexico, Canada, Britain, France, and South Korea have already broken down through key intermediate-term support levels, including their 20-week moving averages.
That global markets are so far ahead of the U.S. market on the downside leads me to believe they will become oversold first and perhaps be the first to bottom and turn back up when the time to buy arrives again.
Meanwhile, the studies of seasonality point out that a seasonal investor outperforms the market over the long-term (occasional years when it does not work notwithstanding), while being at risk in the market only six months each year, and moving to cash for the other six months.
They do not take into consideration the additional gains the seasonal investor can make in the unfavorable season in areas other than cash.
To name a few; bonds, gold, and currencies often move independent of the direction of the stock market, and can rally when the stock market is in a decline. And all are easy enough for investors to take advantage of via mutual funds, and even more efficiently via ETFs (exchange-traded-funds).
If seasonal investors are fluent in market analysis, particularly technical analysis, which can help define when an unfavorable season will not just be a 'dead zone' but will probably see a substantial correction, significant gains can be made from the downside even faster than from the previous rally period. That's because when the market goes down it tends to go down much faster than it went up, often losing a year of previous gains in a matter of a few months.
And holdings are available to harness the power of such market declines, including 'inverse' mutual funds and 'inverse' ETFs, which are designed to move opposite to a particular market or market sector.
In my opinion then, the U.S. market has some catching up to do on the downside, while selected global markets, considerably ahead of the U.S. market on the downside, are liable to bottom first and provide the earliest buying opportunities.
In the interest of full disclosure, I and my subscribers have some recent new positions in a bond ETF, a currency ETF, and selected inverse ETFs against the U.S. market.
But in fact the historical pattern of stock markets making most of their gains in the winter months, and experiencing most of their bear market declines and corrections in the unfavorable summer months, is also common in global markets as well.
Since investors have become much more comfortable with investing in global markets in recent years, in fact have poured money into emerging markets at a record pace, recognition that the seasonal pattern is global is potentially of considerable importance, especially this year.
A 27-page academic study conducted at the Rotterdam School of Management in the Netherlands and published in the American Economic Review in 2002, concluded, "Surprisingly we found this inherited wisdom of Sell in May to be true in 36 of 37 developed and emerging markets. Evidence shows that in the United Kingdom the seasonal effect has been noticeable since 1694.... A trading strategy based on this anomaly would be highly profitable in many countries. The average annual risk-adjusted outperformance ranges between 1.5% and 8.9%, depending on the country being considered. The effect is robust over time, economically significant, unlikely to be caused by data-mining, and not related to taking excess risk."
Stock markets outside of the U.S. seem to be significantly in the lead on the downside in this unfavorable season. For instance, the S&P 500 is only 2% below its recent top on April 29, the last trading day of April (potentially in keeping with the 'Sell in May and Go Away' rule to sell on May 1).
However, in the rest of the world quite serious stock market corrections are underway. The important markets of China (the world's 2nd largest economy), Japan (the world's 3rd largest economy), Hong Kong, India, Brazil, and Russia are already down an average of 12% from their recent peaks, and have broken down through key support levels, including their long-term 200-day moving averages. Other important markets, including Mexico, Canada, Britain, France, and South Korea have already broken down through key intermediate-term support levels, including their 20-week moving averages.
That global markets are so far ahead of the U.S. market on the downside leads me to believe they will become oversold first and perhaps be the first to bottom and turn back up when the time to buy arrives again.
Meanwhile, the studies of seasonality point out that a seasonal investor outperforms the market over the long-term (occasional years when it does not work notwithstanding), while being at risk in the market only six months each year, and moving to cash for the other six months.
They do not take into consideration the additional gains the seasonal investor can make in the unfavorable season in areas other than cash.
To name a few; bonds, gold, and currencies often move independent of the direction of the stock market, and can rally when the stock market is in a decline. And all are easy enough for investors to take advantage of via mutual funds, and even more efficiently via ETFs (exchange-traded-funds).
If seasonal investors are fluent in market analysis, particularly technical analysis, which can help define when an unfavorable season will not just be a 'dead zone' but will probably see a substantial correction, significant gains can be made from the downside even faster than from the previous rally period. That's because when the market goes down it tends to go down much faster than it went up, often losing a year of previous gains in a matter of a few months.
And holdings are available to harness the power of such market declines, including 'inverse' mutual funds and 'inverse' ETFs, which are designed to move opposite to a particular market or market sector.
In my opinion then, the U.S. market has some catching up to do on the downside, while selected global markets, considerably ahead of the U.S. market on the downside, are liable to bottom first and provide the earliest buying opportunities.
In the interest of full disclosure, I and my subscribers have some recent new positions in a bond ETF, a currency ETF, and selected inverse ETFs against the U.S. market.
Volatile Global Markets: 7 Steps To Steer You Through Unscathed
What is going on in global stock markets? Pundits have proposed specific reasons for wild swings, such as America's credit rating downgrade, sustained high unemployment, and declining consumer confidence. I will look more generically, and then suggest an approach for individual Registered Retirement Savings Plan (RRSP), 401K, or equivalent investors to ride out this storm.
The real issue is fear and uncertainty. Market players hate uncertainty. During volatile periods, investors will search everywhere for hope, constantly. And when they see a glimmer, investors rush in, and take off; only to exit after that hope is dashed!
Besides, investors are like sheep. When the market rises steadily, investors follow other investors and buy stocks and bonds, just because others are buying. This herd mentality leads to market bubbles such as the dot-com debacle. Then, folks realized late that they had overpriced excessively, stocks such as Nortel and Yahoo!. When these bubbles burst, a massacre begins. Panic and large-scale irrational selling starts, creating a value investor's dream.
Generically, what is happening today? Uncertainty prevails in all major economies. European economies are in trouble. Major needed surgery in Greece will cause them to stagnate for years as they deal with results of prior heavy government involvement in the economy. Besides Greece, the EU rescued Portugal and Ireland. Now market players worry about France, one of the earlier rescuers. And let us not forget that in the UK, the coalition government has a huge task to sort out that messy economy.
And then, there is the USA. Spending beyond its means, divided legislature, in the midst of electioneering. This is a perfect uncertainty formula. So, fasten your seat belts and be ready for a bumpy ride for the next couple of years.
What can individuals do in this investment environment? Be circumspect; reject the herd mentality. Specifically, here are a few steps that might help:
1. Don't invest if you have consumer debt, or a mortgage. Pay off these first and then start a capital fund.
2. Avoid day trading; not only is it stupid, but it is insane. Stop, if that's what you are doing.
3. Develop a goal and plan. Why are you investing? Your reason will decide your investment strategy. Review the plan yearly or when conditions change. My preferred strategy is to buy equities with a long history of solid fundamentals and dividend-payment. I hold them, review the fundamentals regularly, and market fluctuations do not bother me, provided the long-term fundamentals remain. Remember, you lose, or gain on sale only, not when markets fluctuate!
4. When your investments' fundamentals change, confirm your strategy, and sell even at a loss. The market could be down for several years, like the Japanese market which has been below its bubble highs for over 20 years!
5. Be proactive; know your risk profile, understand your portfolio mix, and think long-term. Don't be influenced by generic asset mixes; you are unique, and your mix should fit you at your life stage.
6. If you are in the retirement red zone, seven years to retirement, your goal must be capital preservation.
7. Do not panic; although there is a point where, as in Japan, the market might not recover quickly. Focus on your goals and plan. They must be up-to-date and fit your needs and your risk profile.
One key factor we forget is that USA consumer spending is about 70% of GDP. The Great Recession hurt consumers badly. Today, they will not rush to spend recklessly as before. Therefore, in economies like the USA that is not producing jobs, we should expect consumers with jobs to save, not spend as earlier.
And so, Global, and USA economic growth will be slow. This is the logical result of earlier over exuberance that led to the most recent bubble. Beware; more government stimulus sounds like good politics, but merely will grow public debt rapidly. It will not grow the economy. Patience must be our mantra!
The real issue is fear and uncertainty. Market players hate uncertainty. During volatile periods, investors will search everywhere for hope, constantly. And when they see a glimmer, investors rush in, and take off; only to exit after that hope is dashed!
Besides, investors are like sheep. When the market rises steadily, investors follow other investors and buy stocks and bonds, just because others are buying. This herd mentality leads to market bubbles such as the dot-com debacle. Then, folks realized late that they had overpriced excessively, stocks such as Nortel and Yahoo!. When these bubbles burst, a massacre begins. Panic and large-scale irrational selling starts, creating a value investor's dream.
Generically, what is happening today? Uncertainty prevails in all major economies. European economies are in trouble. Major needed surgery in Greece will cause them to stagnate for years as they deal with results of prior heavy government involvement in the economy. Besides Greece, the EU rescued Portugal and Ireland. Now market players worry about France, one of the earlier rescuers. And let us not forget that in the UK, the coalition government has a huge task to sort out that messy economy.
And then, there is the USA. Spending beyond its means, divided legislature, in the midst of electioneering. This is a perfect uncertainty formula. So, fasten your seat belts and be ready for a bumpy ride for the next couple of years.
What can individuals do in this investment environment? Be circumspect; reject the herd mentality. Specifically, here are a few steps that might help:
1. Don't invest if you have consumer debt, or a mortgage. Pay off these first and then start a capital fund.
2. Avoid day trading; not only is it stupid, but it is insane. Stop, if that's what you are doing.
3. Develop a goal and plan. Why are you investing? Your reason will decide your investment strategy. Review the plan yearly or when conditions change. My preferred strategy is to buy equities with a long history of solid fundamentals and dividend-payment. I hold them, review the fundamentals regularly, and market fluctuations do not bother me, provided the long-term fundamentals remain. Remember, you lose, or gain on sale only, not when markets fluctuate!
4. When your investments' fundamentals change, confirm your strategy, and sell even at a loss. The market could be down for several years, like the Japanese market which has been below its bubble highs for over 20 years!
5. Be proactive; know your risk profile, understand your portfolio mix, and think long-term. Don't be influenced by generic asset mixes; you are unique, and your mix should fit you at your life stage.
6. If you are in the retirement red zone, seven years to retirement, your goal must be capital preservation.
7. Do not panic; although there is a point where, as in Japan, the market might not recover quickly. Focus on your goals and plan. They must be up-to-date and fit your needs and your risk profile.
One key factor we forget is that USA consumer spending is about 70% of GDP. The Great Recession hurt consumers badly. Today, they will not rush to spend recklessly as before. Therefore, in economies like the USA that is not producing jobs, we should expect consumers with jobs to save, not spend as earlier.
And so, Global, and USA economic growth will be slow. This is the logical result of earlier over exuberance that led to the most recent bubble. Beware; more government stimulus sounds like good politics, but merely will grow public debt rapidly. It will not grow the economy. Patience must be our mantra!
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If you require any more information or have any questions about our privacy policy, please feel free to contact us by email at lopezmambu@gmail.com.
At http://globalmarkets-blog.blogspot.com/, the privacy of our visitors is of extreme importance to us. This privacy policy document outlines the types of personal information is received and collected by http://globalmarkets-blog.blogspot.com/ and how it is used.
Log Files
Like many other Web sites, http://globalmarkets-blog.blogspot.com/ makes use of log files. The information inside the log files includes internet protocol ( IP ) addresses, type of browser, Internet Service Provider ( ISP ), date/time stamp, referring/exit pages, and number of clicks to analyze trends, administer the site, track user’s movement around the site, and gather demographic information. IP addresses, and other such information are not linked to any information that is personally identifiable.
Cookies and Web Beacons
http://globalmarkets-blog.blogspot.com/ does use cookies to store information about visitors preferences, record user-specific information on which pages the user access or visit, customize Web page content based on visitors browser type or other information that the visitor sends via their browser.
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.:: Google, as a third party vendor, uses cookies to serve ads on http://globalmarkets-blog.blogspot.com/.
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